Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet is subject to considerable uncertainties that complicate predictions sea level rise caused by climate change. We examine SMB in 21st century with Bergen Snow Simulator (BESSI) energy and model. To estimate uncertainty SMB, we conduct simulations for four greenhouse gas emission scenarios using output a wide range Earth system models (ESMs) from sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) force BESSI. In addition, simulation estimated 16 different parameter sets our median across ESMs sets, integrated over sheet, decreases time every scenario. As expected, decrease stronger higher emissions. regional distribution resulting shows most substantial western all ESMs, whereas differences between are pronounced north around equilibrium line. Temperature precipitation input variables snow model have largest influence on ESMs. ensemble, greater than previous studies used fewer as forcing. An analysis sources given scenario larger scenarios. comparison, parameters negligible, leaving main reason uncertainty.
منابع مشابه
21st century projections of surface mass balance changes for major drainage systems of the Greenland ice sheet
Outputs from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale at a spatial resolution of 25 km are used to study 21st century projected surface mass balance (SMB) over six major drainage basins of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The regional model is forced with the outputs of three different Earth System Models (CanESM2, NorESM1 and MIROC5) obtained when considering two greenhouse gas...
متن کاملHigh-resolution simulations of the surface mass balance of Greenland at the end of this century
Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract We present atmospheric general circulation model simulations of the present (1981– 2005) and future (2081–2100) climate according to the SRES A1B green...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Cryosphere
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1994-0424', '1994-0416']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022